Big Oil and A Practical Playbook For Corporate Counsel
- Nicholas Niemczyk
- 5 minutes ago
- 4 min read
By: Nick Niemczyk, Class of 2028
Overview
The Trump Administration’s 2025 climate agenda centers on one move at the Environmental Protection Agency: rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding. That 2009 finding, EPA’s determination that greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, provides the legal basis for federal greenhouse-gas rules, including standards for new cars and trucks under the Clean Air Act. If the EPA rescinds the Endangerment Finding, vehicle standards and other rules that rely on it will face far tougher defenses in court. The EPA issued the proposal on July 29, 2025, and paired it with a plan to withdraw light, medium, and heavy-duty greenhouse-gas standards.[1] The rulemaking begins a lengthy process that will likely end in the D.C. Circuit and could reach the Supreme Court.[2]
The Department of the Interior also plans to reopen the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain to leasing and to reinstate previously canceled leases. This would reopen 1.56 million acres for oil & gas leasing.[3] The initiative creates options and bargaining leverage for North Slope operators. Actual drilling timelines will depend on commodity prices, project costs, and litigation under environmental statutes.[4]
Big Oil: Near-Term Impact
Companies can expect lighter federal greenhouse-gas compliance pressure and a more permissive permitting posture in the short term. Those shifts benefit new upstream projects, refinery upgrades, and pipelines that previously faced carbon-cost adders such as electrification or methane tracking. The durability of these gains remains uncertain. The Endangerment Finding rescission will draw immediate lawsuits when finalized, and courts may stay or vacate portions of it. Prudent plans will assume temporary relief from the government and should model the risk of a policy snap-back in 2026–2027.[5]
Carbon strategy remains important during deregulation. In April 2025, Occidental’s 1PointFive secured Class VI permits for the STRATOS direct-air-capture project in Texas, which can generate tradable credits and lower-carbon barrels regardless of the stringency of federal policy. Counsel should structure such assets as financeable hedges with clear terms for monitoring, reporting, storage acreage, and credit-recapture risk.[6]
Investor expectations point in the same direction. Public-market pressure has eased but has not disappeared. Support for environmental and social shareholder proposals in the United States fell to roughly 16 percent in 2025.[7] That trend lowers headline risk, but banks, insurers, and many European investors still expect credible climate-risk disclosures and plans. Counsel should explain how clients will use today’s relief and how they will operate if the policy reverses.[8]
Litigation Outlook
Once the EPA finalizes the Endangerment Finding rescission, states and nongovernmental organizations will petition the D.C. Circuit for review and will likely seek a stay. Courts will test whether EPA’s theory fits the Clean Air Act, whether the record supports the change, and whether EPA satisfied the Administrative Procedure Act.[9]
Separate lawsuits challenge the cancellation of the EPA’s $7 billion “Solar for All” grants. In August, the EPA announced the cancellation of the grants and withdrew nearly 90% of the grant funds from the accounts where states had already received their awards, as outlined in the lawsuit.[10] 20 states now challenge the agency’s decision in court. This new lawsuit will determine if the EPA has exceeded its authority in this matter. These cases differ from the Endangerment Finding action, but they signal close judicial scrutiny of abrupt reversals and preview standing theories and remedies that will likely recur in climate litigation.
If the Interior Department reopens the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, lawsuits are almost guaranteed under laws like the National Environmental Policy Act, the Endangered Species Act, and federal tribal-consultation rules. This area’s history shows why: federal policy on drilling in the refuge has swung back and forth for decades. Presidents have alternated between protecting the land and opening it for oil and gas: from Carter’s 1980 protections, to Trump’s 2017 and 2025 leasing plans, to Biden’s 2021 freeze and 2023 cancellations.[11] Because the rules often change with each administration, projects need legal and financial safeguards that can survive another political reversal. Companies should set realistic schedules, stage capital, and draft leases and services agreements that can withstand pauses without breaking project economics.
Practical Playbook For Counsel
Lawyers should guide clients through the new rules and any rollbacks, while drafting contracts that clearly cover changes in law, including sudden agency flip-flops. Assume the rules may swing again over the next few years, and structure deals so projects can be financed under either a stricter or looser regime.
The 2025 rollbacks give oil and gas companies near-term relief and wider access, but not long-term certainty. How durable these gains are will depend on three moving pieces: efforts to undo the EPA’s Endangerment Finding, ongoing grant-related lawsuits, and Arctic policy decisions. Counsel should help clients use the current window, hedge against a snap-back, and build portfolios that can withstand policy shifts.
[1] U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed Rule: Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards (Aug. 22, 2025), https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/proposed-rule-reconsideration-2009-endangerment-finding.
[2] Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Standards, 90 Fed. Reg. 54, 321 (Aug. 1, 2025).
[3] U.S. Dep’t of the Interior, Interior Takes Bold Steps to Expand Energy, Local Control, and Land Access in Alaska (Oct. 31, 2025),
[4]Trump preparing to reopen Alaska Wildlife Refuge for oil drilling, Politico (Oct. 17, 2025),
[5] 90 Fed. Reg. at 54, 321.
[6] Jacobsen, J., Occidental, 1PointFive Secure Permit for DAC Facility, Climate Insider (Apr. 10, 2025),
[7] US Shareholders Fail to Pass Any Green Proposals for First Time in 6 Years, Financial Times (Oct. 30, 2025),
[8] OneStop ESG, Top ESG Companies, Solutions & Latest ESG News (July 13, 2025), https://onestopesg.com/esg-news/us-investors-retreat-from-climate-and-social-resolutions-in-2025-1752420616573.
[9] 90 Fed. Reg. at 54, 322.
[10] More Than 20 States Sue EPA Over Canceled Solar Power Grants, NBC News (Oct. 29, 2025),
[11] The Long, Long Battle for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, NRDC (Oct. 31, 2025),